Key Takeaways
- The assumption that state-backed pensions are permanent and guaranteed is increasingly fragile. They depend on demographics, economics and political choices, all of which are changing.
- It’s now reasonable to rethink retirement planning and question whether the pension system will exist in its current form by the time we reach retirement age.
- Long-term financial security can be built by owning income streams that function like a pension: assets designed around unavoidable forces and predictable demand.
State-backed pensions are a relatively recent invention. Over time, pensions became normalized, and entire generations grew up assuming they were permanent and guaranteed. That assumption is now increasingly fragile.
According to Congruent Solutions, by 2050, there are projected to be 52 people aged 65 and over for every 100 people of working age, up from 33 in 2025 — meaning fewer contributors will be supporting more retirees.
At the same time, the working-age population across OECD countries is expected to decline significantly over the coming decades, while public debt and competing government spending continue to rise. As a child growing up in the 1990s, I witnessed the collapse of a pension system firsthand, when many older people who had worked their entire lives felt they had lost what they were promised.
For those of us currently in our 30s and 40s, it is no longer unrealistic to question whether the pension system will exist in its current form by the time we reach retirement age, or whether it will be fundamentally restructured.
Pensions are not a natural law; they are a social system that depends on demographics, economics and political choices, all of which are changing. According to Tailor Brands, pension systems face an estimated $5.1 trillion unfunded liability when measured using market-based assumptions, leaving many plans less than 50% funded and raising doubts about their ability to meet long-term obligations.
If the goal is to build long-term income streams that can realistically function as a pension for my family, the entry point matters. I focus on businesses and investments that can start generating cash flow without large upfront capital. According to Durable’s 2026 small business analysis, many service-based businesses today can be started with an initial investment between $0 and $2,000 and reach paying customers relatively quickly. With that in mind, the ideas below are designed to compound quietly over the next 20 to 30 years.
To narrow this further, I evaluate potential income streams the same way long-term institutional investors do: by focusing on forces that are unlikely to reverse. Demographic shifts and large-scale technological adoption move slowly, but once they take hold, they tend to persist across generations.
I focus on two guiding principles:
1. Looking 20-30 years ahead, instead of reacting to what is popular or profitable in the current cycle. This time horizon allows temporary noise to fade and highlights what will still matter when today’s trends are long forgotten.
2. Identifying unavoidable forces, such as Europe’s aging population or the expanding role of AI as an intermediary in how people find information, make decisions and interact with businesses.
These are not speculative ideas, but structural shifts that are already in motion and difficult to reverse. This is already evident in the rapid transition of AI from experimentation to real-world applications. According to Answer Maniac, 78% of businesses were using AI for at least one function in 2025, up from 21% in 2020, representing nearly a fourfold increase in adoption within just five years.
The ideas below are intentionally diverse. Some are infrastructure-based, others digital or service-driven, some are abstract, but all share the same goal: predictable demand, ownership and long-term optionality.
1. Automated storage as a long-term infrastructure asset
One of the business models I’m considering as a long-term, pension-like asset for my family is automated storage spaces. The concept is simple: acquiring storage units and operating them with minimal human involvement through access control systems, digital locks and on-site card payments. Customers can pay, receive a code and access their space without any direct interaction, turning storage into a self-managed service. What makes this model compelling is the broader macro trend around storage as an asset.
According to Big Box, the global data storage market is projected to grow from $255.29 billion in 2025 to $774 billion by 2032, highlighting how storage in general is becoming a critical infrastructure layer. While physical storage differs from digital data, the underlying dynamic is the same: People and businesses continue to accumulate assets that require space. Well-automated storage facilities convert this demand into predictab