With the U.S. facing a series of economic headwinds, from union strikes and the resumption of student loan payments to rising oil prices and sky-high mortgage rates, economist David Rosenberg believes a recession is all but guaranteed.
Of course, the president of the market analysis and investment strategy firm Rosenberg Research has also been predicting an economic downturn for some time. In March 2022, just after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to fight the rise of inflation, he warned that there was a 75% chance of the U.S. experiencing a recession by the end of the year.
That call turned out to be premature, but the veteran economist still won’t abandon his bearish forecast—even though some of his peers and the Fed’s staff already have.
“It hasn’t materialized, dot dot dot, yet,” he told CNBC Wednesday when asked about his prediction, emphasizing that he now believes a recession will hit within the next six months despite more rosy predictions from his peers.
“It’s as if, if it doesn’t snow in December, then we’ll just call off winter,” he quipped.
Rosenberg expects consumers will begin to slow their spending dramatically in the fourth quarter, especially with gas prices rising toward $100 per barrel, calling the period a “litmus test” for his recession call.