The best NBA draft prospects aren’t necessarily the safest, but the wider the gap between a player’s ceiling and floor, the higher the risk of selecting them.
Usually, that gap is relatively manageable at the top and tends to extend the further down the draft board you travel. But this class is different.
Several of the most celebrated prospects also own the biggest boom-or-bust outlooks. After running through a mock first round, we’ll spotlight the three biggest risk-or-reward prospects in it.
2020 NBA Mock Draft
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, SG, Georgia
2. Golden State Warriors: James Wiseman, C, Memphis
3. Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, PG/SG, Illawarra Hawks
4. Chicago Bulls: Deni Avdija, SF/PF, Maccabi Tel Aviv
5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Obi Toppin, PF/C, Dayton
6. Atlanta Hawks: Tyrese Haliburton, PG, Iowa State
7. Detroit Pistons: Killian Hayes, PG, Ratiopharm Ulm
8. New York Knicks: Isaac Okoro, SF/PF, Auburn
9. Washington Wizards: Onyeka Okongwu, PF/C, USC
10. Phoenix Suns: Devin Vassell, SF, Florida State
11. San Antonio Spurs: Patrick Williams, PF, Florida State
12. Sacramento Kings: Aaron Nesmith, SF, Vanderbilt
13. New Orleans Pelicans: Jalen Smith, PF/C, Maryland
14. Boston Celtics (via Memphis Grizzlies): RJ Hampton, SG, New Zealand Breakers
15. Orlando Magic: Kira Lewis Jr., PG, Alabama
16. Portland Trail Blazers: Tyrese Maxey, SG, Kentucky
17. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Brooklyn Nets): Precious Achiuwa, PF/C, Memphis
18. Dallas Mavericks: Aleksej Pokusevski, PF, Olympiacos II
19. Brooklyn Nets (via Philadelphia 76ers): Cole Anthony, PG, North Carolina
20. Miami Heat: Josh Green, SG, Arizona
21. Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City Thunder): Tyrell Terry, PG, Stanford
22. Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets): Grant Riller, PG/SG, Charleston
23. Utah Jazz: Saddiq Bey, SF/PF, Villanova
24. Milwaukee Bucks (via Indiana Pacers): Theo Maledon, PG/SG, ASVEL
25. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Denver Nuggets): Zeke Nnaji, C, Arizona
26. Boston Celtics: Jaden McDaniels, SF/PF, Washington
27. New York Knicks (via Los Angeles Clippers): Jahmi’us Ramsey, SG, Texas Tech
28. Los Angeles Lakers: Malachi Flynn, PG, San Diego State
29. Toronto Raptors: Desmond Bane, SG, TCU
30. Boston Celtics (via Milwaukee Bucks): Xavier Tillman, PF/C, Michigan State
Top Boom-or-Bust Prospects
Anthony Edwards, SG, Georgia
There isn’t a consensus top prospect in this draft, but Edwards comes closest to wearing that label. It might be jarring, then, to see him included here.
From his NBA-ready build to his flashes of advanced shot-making, he isn’t short on intrigue. But tools can only take a player so far. If the finished product never emerges, then all that work—and the lofty draft investment—goes to waste.
That’s the reason Edwards has scouts more worried than you’d expect, as B/R’s Jonathan Wasserman detailed:
“Teams are worried about Edwards’ drive and enthusiasm for winning. … Despite media projections and upside that everyone acknowledges, he has a shaky reputation within NBA circles. Dion Waiters has been used by skeptics as a comparison or low-end outcome for Edwards, an inefficient scorer at Georgia whose Bulldogs finished 13 of 14 teams in the SEC.
“Scouts and executives have mentioned that his teams haven’t won at any level, and that he even forgets plays and actions.”
Edwards should get buckets. He just averaged 19.1 points per night as an 18-year-old, so at least some of that production will carry over. But if the volume isn’t accompanied by efficiency—he managed only a 40.2/29.4/77.2 shooting slash—and the scoring isn’t accompanied by contributions in other areas, he won’t come close to becoming the franchise face he needs to be to justify his draft slot.
LaMelo Ball, PG/SG, Illawarra Hawks
Ball is an easy sell to squads lacking in star power, playmaking or both. He’s the most recognizable player in this draft and quite clearly its most capable table-setter.
But questions of shot selection and defensive intensity have long hovered over him, and none have been answered less than one month ahead of the talent grab. He might make the occasional flashy pass or long-distance triple, but if he pairs quantity-over-quality offense with careless defense, he’ll be tough to trust with heavy minutes.
“Ball is the ultimate boom-or-bust proposition,” a scout told Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle. “You watch him play, and it’s easy to see why folks love him. His creativity and feel are off the charts. But for me, he’s too risky to use a super early pick on. There’s just too many thing he’s deficient in right now.”
The issue is without that “super early pick,” teams aren’t getting Ball. He has a better chance of going No. 1 than slipping outside the top five. Organizations must trust both their developmental staffs and Ball’s willingness to be coached to comfortably send that pick to the podium.
Aleksej Pokusevski, PF, Olympiacos II
If you focus on Pokusevski’s strengths, you could spend countless hours wondering why he’s not in contention for a top-five pick. Soak in his splash plays, and you’ll be submerged into a drool-worthy blend of off-the-dribble triples, delicious dimes and highlight blocks all being engineered by a 7-footer.
Put the weaknesses under the microscope, though, and you’ll wonder how he’s even in the first-round conversation. His rail-thin frame gets thrown around in Greece’s second division, which is the rookie mode to the Association’s Hall of Fame difficulty level. He takes a ton of bad shots that could sabotage his connection rates, and he can hinder his defensive impact with a lack of engagement.
“Few players with his frame find success in the NBA,” The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor wrote. “He may never be a good one-on-one defender because of physical limitations. It is vital that he finds an excellent strength-and-conditioning program.”
At some point on the draft board, Pokusevski’s potential will outweigh his possible pitfalls. But every team might set that at a different point in the draft, and if it comes earlier than expected, his team will really need its coaching staff to come through. It’s a go-big-or-go-home type of investment, and Pokusevski seems likely to be one of this draft’s biggest talking points for years to come—for better or worse.