Early forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season suggest it could be extreme, perhaps even record-breaking.
Colorado State University, a prominent hurricane and tropical weather forecast center, released its predictions on Thursday: 11 hurricanes, five of which are expected to become Category 3, 4 or 5, meaning they’d have wind speeds of at least 111 mph. Overall, the researchers anticipate 23 named storms this season.
“This is the highest April forecast that we have put out,” Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State meteorologist and Atlantic hurricane forecaster, said in a video news briefing.
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or above), according to the National Hurricane Center.
The two main reasons forecasters expect the coming season — which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 — to be so far above average are extreme levels of Atlantic Ocean heat and a seasonal switch to La Niña, a natural pattern of variability. Ocean temperatures have been record-high for a year, which makes powerful storms more likely and can enable them to