Democrats usually select their Senate nominees in pivotal races the old-fashioned way. Party leaders recruit the best option, in their eyes, and Democratic primary voters—innately terrified of risk and trusting of their leaders’ judgment—fall in line. It doesn’t always work out. Sometimes, like North Carolina’s Cal Cunningham in 2020, the chosen ones have zipper issues. But Democrats’ establishment-driven approach, contrasted with Republicans’ less top-driven (and more mistake-prone) strategy for candidate selection, did give Democrats four years in the Senate majority from 2021 to 2025, despite their structural disadvantage in the chamber.
After the great Democratic calamity of 2024, the party’s leaders are getting less leeway. Support among Democrats for their leaders is in free fall. Aging incumbents are being shownthe door. Democratic voters are more willing to accept risk, and to push their leaders to take risks, which is why the government has been shut down for a couple of weeks.
And now a marquee Senate primary will determine how much control Democratic Party leadership still has over those races too.
