President Donald Trump’s chances of victory in the November election are slim, with the likelihood of him winning the popular vote even less probable, according to the latest forecast from The Economist.
The model from the weekly magazine currently projects that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is “very likely to beat” Trump on November 3. The president has only about a 1 in 7 (or 12 percent) chance of winning in the Electoral College and less than a 1 in 20 (or 3 percent) chance of winning the most votes nationwide. The forecast predicts that the president will garner just 193 electoral votes.
Biden is projected to win 345 electoral votes. The model shows the Democratic candidate with around a 6 in 7 (or 87 percent) chance of winning in the Electoral College, meaning he’s highly favored to win on Election Day. Additionally, Biden has a better than 19 in 20 (or 97 percent) chance of winning the most votes across the country.
If the forecast proves accurate, Biden’s win would significantly overshadow Trump‘s in 2016. The president garnered 306 electoral votes compared with Hillary Clinton’s 232, but that would be significantly less than the 345 electoral votes currently projected for Biden. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, however, earning nearly 3 million more votes than Trump.
But the president won big in the Electoral College, narrowly carrying a series of key swing states—including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These four states went blue for former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but shifted red for Trump in 2016. Democrats hope to regain these states with Biden at the top of their ticket.
Trump and his campaign team have consistently rejected dismal public polling numbers and negative forecasts. They’ve argued that pollsters are generally biased against Trump and Republicans. Campaign aides have pointed to 2016, when most forecasts and polls predicted Clinton would win, suggesting a similar situation will unfold in the coming election.
The political site FiveThirtyEight also projects that Biden is “favored” to win in November, based on its forecast. However, the site gives Trump slightly better odds of pulling off another victory. In 27 out of 100 scenarios played out by the site’s modeling, the president carries the day. Comparatively, Biden wins in 72 out of 100. The site currently projects Trump will garner 213 electoral votes to Biden’s 325.
Biden leads Trump nationally by about 7.5 percentage points, according to the latest polling average compiled by Real Clear Politics. But recent polls show a wide variance, with a CNN survey carried out last week showing just a 4 percent lead for Biden and a CBS News/YouGov survey showing the former vice president with a 10 percent lead.
